Some States May See Monthly Bills Double in Five Years
Earlier this month, Dallas electricity customers saw the opening of the Edged Dallas data center. The new center is capable of providing 24 megawatts of electricity to power tenants working there. These tenants could be running AI, crypto currency mining, and data centers. Connecting the center to the grid was easy. After all, it’s placed within spitting distance of a large electric substation. Altogether, the Dallas area currently has about 155 AI and data centers. At this time, most of these site use anywhere up to hundreds of megawatts. And more are on the way. But it’s not just in Texas. These facilities are spreading in all 50 states.
Just how much the AI revolution will affect your home’s future electric bills is tough to wrap your brain around. Basically, the scale is huge. Data centers house racks and racks of computers. The power demands run into thousands of gigawatts of power and billions of dollars. All the same, consumers are left facing an awful lot of uncertainty.
Obviously, consumers need to understand how these facilities may raise home electric bills. To that end, we examined residential electricity rate trends. Our goal was to tease out an idea of what bills might look like five years from now in 2030.
Key Insights:
· Home kWh usage falls by an average of 4.80% to 751.77 kWh per month.
· Price per kWh for residential customers increases over 47% from 2024 prices.
· Average monthly electric bills rise above 2024 levels by nearly 55%.
· Some states will see monthly bills rise above 2024 levels by more than 75%.
How Big Will AI, Crypto, and Data Centers Grow?
At this time, the DOE's Berkeley Lab predicts data center load will double or triple from 2023 levels by 2028. Some experts say that U.S. utilities would need to meet a demand of over 120 gigawatts for these loads. In short, AI, crypto, and data centers could out-consume homes by about 2 to 1.
Texas already has over 300 data centers and 25 known crypto mining sites. While some of these facilities, like crypto mines, have "behind the meter" access to power plants, not all do. Grid planners here forecast a 37% jump in demand to more than 150 gigawatts by 2030. This is especially dire here because, unlike other U.S. grids, the Texas ERCOT grid must make all of its own power. And Texas summers are hot!
But, the challenge doesn't lie just in building more generators. Specifically, Texas power utilities are already building and expanding their grid. After all, in a state often battered by hurricanes, keeping and repairing the power delivery system is far from cheap. Lastly, as in other states, utilities are asking for rate hikes on consumer bills to pay for it.
For example, Oncor, the utility serving Dallas, received 59 gigawatts of interconnection requests from data centers this past summer. In fact, the south Dallas area alone currently has 1.5 gigawatts of data center projects in the works. Given that many consider Dallas an AI hot spot, connecting these projects could cost hundreds of millions of dollars.
So, it's not surprising at all that Oncor hiked residential delivery rates three times from 2023 through 2024 for a total of 13.7%.
How Much AI, Crypto, and Data Centers Will Cost You
To calculate this, we first took an average of the annual percent increase for rates during the 2020 to 2024 period for each state. Our thinking was that rates for this period included utility increases for ROI, natural gas price volatility, storm repairs due to extreme weather, and increased demand from AI, crypto, and data centers. This seemed logical to assume that these factors would continue to track within the same percentage range for the next five years, affecting electricity prices in a similar way. While we knew we wouldn't find the precise increase rate, our goal was to find one that was within the realm of probability.
Pricing varies between states and regions due to different market effects. While some states had high average annual prices increases per kWh, others saw less:
· California started with the highest annual percentage increase of 12.60%
· Alaska started with the lowest annual increase of 2.80%
· The average for the whole U.S. was 6.72%.
We then applied this percentage increase to the 2024 kWh rate to get the kWh rate for 2025. We then repeated this for each year up to 2030.
Usage also varies between states. However, we discovered that from 2020 to 2024, consumers continued a trend of using less and less electricity. At times during this period, home usage fell by more than 15%. Therefore, we applied a state average change in usage when calculating electric bill amounts.
2030 kWh Costs:
Ten States Paying the Most vs Those Paying the Least
| Highest Estimated Price Per kWh | Lowest Estimated Price Per kWh | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | 69.88¢ | Wyoming | 13.72¢ | ||
| California | 65.06¢ | Montana | 14.97¢ | ||
| Connecticut | 45.65¢ | Tennessee | 15.89¢ | ||
| Massachusetts | 43.58¢ | Nevada | 15.98¢ | ||
| Maine | 41.42¢ | Arizona | 16.80¢ | ||
| New York | 40.37¢ | North Dakota | 16.94¢ | ||
| Rhode Island | 36.71¢ | Louisiana | 17.05¢ | ||
| New Hampshire | 36.28¢ | Washington | 17.07¢ | ||
| District of Columbia | 30.21¢ | Kentucky | 17.09¢ | ||
| Alaska | 29.48¢ | Arkansas | 17.24¢ |
High Priced States
Hawaii saw the largest hike with prices hitting 69.88¢ cents per kWh. With this in mind, the limited amount of real estate may likely limit the growth of AI and data centers.
California prices may rise to 65.06 cents per kWh. Given that it's home to Silicon Valley, the state already supports 292 data centers that consume 5,580 gigawatts per year. For the same reason, usage could grow to nearly 20,000 gigawatts per year by 2030.
Connecticut came in third highest. New England states typically have the highest electric rates owing to reliance on natural gas. So, CT electric prices may rise to 45.62 cents per kWh. The region is also densely populated; CT alone currently has about 59 data centers. In light of this, CT lawmakers and developers have been working on ways to attract more data centers, including a 300 megawatt center "behind-the-meter" at the Millstone nuclear power station.
Low Priced States
Wyoming could have the least increasing prices. Rates here could reach 13.72 cents per kWh in 2030. The state is home to 28 data centers so far. Historically, the best data centers have had fast response times to their users. But Wyoming is remote and mostly rural. But since AI training doesn't need to worry about latency problems, this isn't a problem for the state -- or all the other fly-over states in the nation's heartland. And because Wyoming exports 60% of the electricity it generates, prices per kWh are low.
Montana is second with low prices per kWh at 14.97 cents per kWh in 2030. The state has 6 data centers, so far. But while the state is rich in wind power potential, its electric grid is largely undeveloped and needs investment to attract future development.
Tennessee is another population-attracting state which makes most of its electricity through nuclear plants. As a result, these could keep the price per kWh low; 15.89 cents per kWh in 2030. At this time, the state has 46 data centers and 2 known crypto mines. Experts predict that further expansion could increase electricity consumption by a modest 1.3% by 2030.
2030 Electric Bills:
Ten States Paying Highest Monthly Bills vs Those Paying Less
| Highest Estimated Monthly Bill | Lowest Estimated Monthly Bill | |||
| Hawaii | $347.57 | Nevada | $100.04 | |
| California | $299.73 | Arizona | $113.45 | |
| Connecticut | $279.71 | Montana | $114.70 | |
| West Virginia | $238.33 | Wyoming | $122.09 | |
| Massachusetts | $232.74 | Iowa | $124.42 | |
| Maryland | $228.42 | Utah | $126.29 | |
| Oregon | $222.21 | Wisconsin | $135.47 | |
| Maine | $214.24 | Kansas | $135.87 | |
| Idaho | $209.84 | Missouri | $138.33 | |
| New Hampshire | $207.75 | New Mexico | $138.78 |
Highest Bills
Not surprisingly, Hawaii, California, and Connecticut have the highest average monthly electric bills.
· Hawaii: $347.57, an increase of 67.1% over 2024.
· California: $299.73, a rise of 115.28% over 2024.
· Connecticut: $279.71, 65.78% higher than 2024.
All the same, it's important to point out that we're predicting these ten high bill states to have annual rate increases of more than 55%. In fact, eight of these states will see increases of 60% or higher. Consequently, customers may end up paying more and more to their utilities to cover the costs for powering many of these new sites. With the exception of Hawaii already mentioned, all the highest bill states face quickly mounting costs for building more generators as well as transmission/distribution projects to modernize and expand their grids.
The Largest Loads for AI, Crypto, and Data Centers – But Not the Biggest Bills
Both Virginia and Texas have the most AI, crypto, and data centers. However, it is important to note that our data shows they likely will not have the highest bills. The average monthly bills in both Virginia and Texas may see growth by 50% from 2024 levels to nearly $200.00 in 2030. Part of that may be due to the fact that these states already have regulatory frameworks and incentives in place to get transmission/distribution projects rolling.
• Virginia has 526 data centers, most located in the metro Washington DC suburbs of northern Virginia. Because businesses and agencies in the area play important roles in the federal government, transmission and distribution has been a key resource that has been maintained for decades.
• Texas has 303 data centers and 25 known crypto mines (more than any state). While most of the state's data centers are located in the Dallas area and other large cities, its crypto mines are mostly out in the rural parts of the state where they can get the cheapest electricity. Several are also attached to natural gas generators and renewable energy sources directly. While this "behind the meter" location means they don't pull energy directly off the grid, lawmakers are debating if they must pay for it anyway.
Lowest Bills
Nevada may see one of the lowest rate increases. Consumers could see bills as low as $100.04 in 2030, just 8.79% higher than the 2024 level. The state has about 42 data centers so far. However, the low electric cost could soon add another 3.8 gigawatts of capacity.
Arizona could see the second lowest bill increase. An average bill may rise to $113.45 , an increase of 12.65% over 2024 levels. That's interesting because the state hosts 112 data centers with most based in the Phoenix area. Still, capacity is expected to reach over 5 gigawatts of capacity. One bright spot is that many of these facilities could be powered by their own solar arrays which will also put power on the Arizona grid.
Montana is projected to have the third cheapest average bill; $114.70 per month based on an increase of 17.49%.
Which Will Use the Most Power 2030: AI, Crypto, or Data Centers?
AI is expected to grow by more than 25% and have a market volume of more than $800 billion by 2030. Data centers that power the internet economy are predicted to grow by 22% with a value of $110 billion by 2030. To be sure, these are heavy hitters; examples include Amazon AWS, Google Cloud, Meta, Microsoft, Equinix, and others offering AI, cloud computing, and data management services.
Crypto, meanwhile, is expected to grow slower at a little over half that rate with a value of nearly $3 billion. While cryptocurrency isn't going away, it can be extremely volatile. Bitcoin, for example, has a function where its value is halved roughly every four years. So, that's why more than a few crypto mining companies are eyeing the steady revenue stream offered by data centers and AI.
The crypto mining pivot towards AI has been in the cards for a while. Specifically, Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) cards. That's because many AI and crypto mining applications use GPU cards. A single computer rack that includes the power supply, CPU, fans, and ten GPU cards can use around 10.5 kW per hour. That's around 252 kWh per day; 7,560 kWh per month. An average crypto or data facility may operate about 20,000 of these racks.
All of these racks put out a lot of heat. Couple that with temperature control systems to keep the machines cool and the site's electric demand climbs to more than 2 megawatt hours. With crypto mines already using GPU systems with cheap electricity to run 'round the clock, their facilities can be very attractive to AI and data center companies looking to expand their operations quickly and cheaply.
Will Energy Efficient AI, Crypto, and Data Centers Really Use Less Energy?
As AI grows, so will the need to make it more energy efficient and cheaper to run. But while that sounds like a promising way to reduce energy usage, it ultimately could lead to a "Jevons Paradox". That's when improvements to technology reduce the cost of a process or tool. When it's cheaper, more companies start using it. Eventually, the growing number of users use even more energy than before.
So, if we follow Jevons Paradox, better energy efficiency may reduce AI's costs in the next decade. But, cheaper costs could multiply the number of AI and other data centers further. At that point, their spread could demand even more power.
Three Continental U.S. Regions Likely to Have the Highest Electric Rates in 2030
The Pacific Noncontiguous states of Hawaii and Alaska are each special cases. Neither has a single grid and both are totally isolated from the rest of the U.S. continental grids.
1. Pacific Contiguous: 48.32 cents per kWh. An average monthly bill could be $277.50.
2. New England: 41.72 cents per kWh. Average monthly bills could hit $230.45.
3. Middle Atlantic: 32.37 cents per kWh. Bills could average out at $187.44.
Methods
We compared billing EIA data for 2020 to 2024 to determine the price per kWh and average monthly usage for all 50 states as well as the District of Columbia. According to EIA, about 60% of each electric bill mainly covers utility charges for their return on investment as well as the transmission/distribution costs for expanding, maintaining, and repairing their network. Because of that, we reasoned that rates for the average of the annual percent increase for rates during the 2020 to 2024 period would likely continue for the next five years.
To calculate future prices and bills, we took the average annual percent increase for kWh rates during the 2020 to 2024 period for each state. We then multiplied that amount to the 2024 kWh rate to find the 2025 kWh rate and repeated it to 2030.
Since we also discovered that consumers were gradually using less electricity, we calculated that average percentage and applied it year over year to our usage figures.
Sources
US Energy Information Administration Electric Power Monthly; Tables 5.05b, 5,06b, and 5.08, years 2020 through 2024.
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/index.php
Trend toward electric utility rate increases in regulated markets continues in 2024
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=63024
Mining Map
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=63024
USA Data Centers Map
https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/
New York’s Edged Energy To Build ‘Ultra-Efficient, AI-Ready’ Data Center in Irving
https://dallasinnovates.com/new-yorks-edged-energy-to-build-ultra-efficient-ai-ready-data-center-in-irving/
Bitcoin Miners: The New Power Backbone of AI Data Centers
https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/ai-data-centers/bitcoin-miners-the-new-power-backbone-of-ai-data-centers
Strategic Industries Surging: Driving US Power Demand
https://gridstrategiesllc.com/wp-content/uploads/National-Load-Growth-Report-2024.pdf
Utilities Must Reinvent Themselves to Harness the AI-Driven Data Center Boom
https://www.bain.com/insights/utilities-must-reinvent-themselves-to-harness-the-ai-driven-data-center-boom/
Jevons Paradox
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox